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Answer the questions based on the following information.
Rajat is sales manager of Dubin Computers Ltd. and looks after Delhi market. The company sells laptops in India. He is currently trying to select a distributor for coming five years. The distributor ensures that the products are accessible to the customers in the market. Market share of a company depends on the coverage by the distributor.
The total profit potential of the entire laptop market in Delhi is Rs. 5 crores in the current year and present value of next four years‘ cumulative profit potential is Rs. 15 crores.
The first choice for Rajat is to enter into long-term contract with a distributor M/s Jagan with whom Dubin has done business in the past, and whose distribution system reaches 55 percent of all potential customers. At the last moment, however, a colleague suggests Rajat to consider signing a one-year contract with other distributors. Distributors M/s Bola and M/s James are willing to be partner with Dubin. Although a year ago M/s Bola‘s and M/s James‘s coverage reached only 40 and 25 percent of customers respectively, they claim to have invested heavily in distribution resources and now expect to be able to reach 60 percent and 75 percent of customers respectively. The probability of M/s Bola‘s claim and M/s James‘s claim to be true is 0.60 and 0.20 respectively. The knowledge about distributors‘ coverage will evolve over time. The assumption is that the true level of coverage offered by the new distributors could be discovered, with certainty, through a one-year trail, and this trail will reveal exactly one of the two levels of coverage: for example in case of M/s Bola – 40 percent (as it was last year) or 60 percent (as claimed). In addition, it is also assumed that whatever the coverage is for both distributors, it will not change over time. Rajat narrows down on three choices, which are as follows:
Choice 1. Give a five year contract to the familiar distributor M/s Jagan
Choice 2. Give a one year contract to the new distributor M/s Bola, and base next year‘s decision to renew contract with M/s Bola on observed coverage for next four years contract with M/s Jagan.
Choice 3. Give a one-year contract to the new distributor M/s James, and base next year‘s decision to renew contract with M/s James on observed coverage for next four years contract with M/s Jagan.[1] The expected present value of the five years cumulative profit with choice 3 is:
A. Rs. 12.7 crores
B. Rs. 10.6 crores
C. Rs. 11.7 crores
D. None of the above[2] Which of the following statement is TRUE?
A. Choice 1 is more profitable than Choice 2
B. Choice 3 is more profitable than Choice 2
C. Choice 3 is more profitable than Choice 1
D. None of the above[3] If the distributor M/s James claims a coverage of 55% instead of 75% and probability of this claim to be true is 0.70 instead of 0.20 then which of the following statement is true?
A. Choice 1 is more profitable than Choice 2
B. Choice 2 is more profitable than Choice 3
C. Choice 3 is more profitable than Choice 1
D. None of the aboveasked in IIFT
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