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85.
Nearly two thousand years have passed since a census decreed by Caesar Augustus became part of the greatest story ever told. Many things have changed in the intervening years. The hotel industry worries more about overbuilding than overcrowding, and if they had to meet an unexpected influx, few inns would have managed to accommodate the weary guests. Now it is the census taker that does the travelling in the fond hope that a highly mobile population will stay put long enough to get a good sampling. Methods of gathering, recording and evaluating information have presumably been improved a great deal. And where then it was the modest purpose of Rome to obtain a simple head count as an adequate basis for levying taxes, now batteries of complicated statistical series furnished by governmental agencies and private organizations are eagerly scanned and interpreted by sages and seers to get a clue for future events.
The Bible does not tell us how the Roman census takers made out, and as regards our more immediate concern, the reliability of present-day economic forecasting, there are considerable differences of opinion. They were aired at the celebration of the 125th anniversary of the American Statistical Association. There was the thought that business forecasting might well be on its way from an art to a science, and some speakers talked about new-fangled computers and high-faulting mathematical systems in terms of excitement and endearment, which we, at least in our younger years when these things mattered, would have associated more readily with the description of a fair maiden.
But others pointed to a deplorable record of highly esteemed forecasts and forecasters with a batting average below that of the Mets and the President-elect of the Association cautioned that "high-powered statistical methods are usually in order where the facts are crude and inadequate, statisticians assume."
We left his birthday party somewhere between hope and despair and with the conviction, not really newly acquired, that proper statistical methods applied to ascertainable facts have their merits in economic forecasting as long as neither forecaster nor public is deluded into mistaking the delineation of probabilities and trends for a prediction of certainties of mathematical exactitude.
[1] According to the passage, taxation in Roman times were based on
a. mobility
b. wealth
c. population
d. census takers[2] The author refers to the Mets primarily in order to
a. show that sports do not depend on statistics
b. contrast verifiable and unverifiable methods of record keeping
c. indicate the changes in attitudes from Roman days to the present
d. illustrate the failure of statistical predictions.[3] The author's tone can best be described as
a. jocular
b. scornful
c. pessimistic
d. humanisticasked in SNAP
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86.
Read the passage and answer within its context.
Rajendra K. Pachauri, head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, is getting nightmares because of the Nano, Tata‘s soon-to-be-launched Rs. One lakh car. Sunita Narain of the centre for science and Environment (CSE) says that it isn‘t the Nano by itself but cars overall that gives her nightmares. The villains in my nightmares are either the Nano nor cars overall, but stupid government policies that subsidize and encourage pollution, adulteration and congestion.
Sanctimonious greens call the Nano disastrous because of its affordability millions more will now clog roads and consume more fossil fuel. This is elitism parading as virtue. Elite greens own cars, but cannot stand the poorer masses becoming mobile, since the consequent will eat into the time of the elite!
More logical would be a protest against big cars that use more space and fuel, or highly polluting old cars. Instead green hypocrites aim at a new car with the lowest cost, best mileage and least emissions. The Nano will not burden us with too many cars. India has very few cars per person by world standards. London and New York have ultra-high car densities, yet have clearer air than Delhi. Our problem is too many policies, not too many cars.
We subsidize vehicles on a gargantuan scale invisible to lay folk. Roads and flyovers cost crores to build and maintain, yet road use is free(save on a few toll roads). Traffic police and lights are costly, yet are provided free. These invisible subsidies starve cities of funds to expand roads and public transport.
Land in cities now costs lakhs per square metre. Yet parking is free in the suburbs, and often costs just Rs. 10 day per day in city centres. A single parking space of 23 square meters land worth Rs. 40 lakhs. A car occupies more space than an office desk, yet the desk space pays full commercial rent while parking space costs just about Rs. 10 per day.
Daily parking charges range from $30(RS.630) in Washington to $30(Rs. 1260) in New York, CSE launched a sensible campaign to raise parking fees in Delhi to Rs. 120 per day, but was foiled. So, parking space now exceeds green space, a scathing comment on priorities.
The world price of crude oil has risen 13 fold since 1998 to over %139 per barrel, but Indian petrol prices have barely doubled. Left Front politicians, who once wanted to soak the rich, now want to subsidize them. Under-recoveries of oil companies‘ total may be Rs. 2,00,000 crore, even after a recent price hike. This is far more than the cost of Sarve Shiksha Abhiyan (education for all) and the Employment Guarantee Scheme put together.
We sanctimoniously lecture rich countries to reduce their green house emissions, yet subsidize our own. Diesel is subsidized to be cheaper than petrol. So, Indian car makers produce the highest proportion of diesel cars in the world. Diesel fumes contain suspended particles that are highly toxic. This subsidy kills.
So does kerosene provided at throwaway prices, ostensibly to benefit poor villagers. One third of all kerosene is used to adulterate petrol and diesel. This causes horrendous pollution even in the greenest of cars.
What‘s the way forward? We must abolish subsidies and raise taxes on vehicles and fuels to reflect their full social cost. The biggest but least visible subsidy is for parking, and we should start there.
Many car owners in the West take public transport to work since parking space downtown is costly and scarce. We should levy parking fees on an hourly, not daily, basis. Rs. 10 per hour could be a starting point in the metros.
In parts of Tokyo, you cannot own a car unless you own a private parking space. This is too extreme for India, but indicates the future path. If we charge owners the full social cost of parking, people will buy smaller and perhaps fewer vehicles, and fewer still will take them to work. That will slash congestion and pollution.
Cities should levy stiff annual taxes on vehicles, not a one-time tax, and use the revenue to constantly expand public transport and roads. This will create economic synergy: Private transport will finance public transport. London and New York have high density public transport as well as high car density.
Apart from underground rail, cities need elevated roads to ease congestion and pollution. Lata Mangeshkar helped kill a proposal for an elevated road near her Mumbai flat: perhaps she felt her throat and singing would be affected. She did not care that the throats of poor people living on the pavements were far worse affected by fumes, and might get relief if some fumes were diverted to a higher level. What elitism!
Next, some medicine that will be really bitter, politically. The excise duty on all automotive vehicles should be raised to reflect their social costs. Fuel subsidies should be abolished. Price differentials between petrol, diesel and kerosene should be removed, ending incentives for adulteration. Diesel cars should bear a heavy additional cess to finance improve healthcare for those affected by their emission of harmful particulate matter.
That is a long, politically difficult agenda. Only part of it will ever be achieved. Yet that is the way to go, rather than agitate the Nano.
[1] By 'Sanctimonious greens' the writer refers to
a. aristocratic environmentalists
b. the rich
c. environmentalists with a 'holier than thou' attitude
d. those who decry deforestation[2] The elite are
a. jealous of Nano owners
b. afraid of traffic jams and depletion of fossil fuel
c. afraid of reaching their destinations late
d. full of disdain that the poor can afford cars[3] The paradox of the situation is that
a. bigger cars mean more fuel, more space and more pollution
b. though India has fewer cars the Nano will bring more pollution
c. London and New York have more cars and less pollution
d. though India is smaller than the US its cars cause more pollution[4] In saying 23 square metres of parking space costs 40 lakhs, the writer is _____
a. caustic
b. exaggerating
c. sarcastic
d. ironical[5] The writer blames India for
a. subsidizing kerosene whereby greenhouse emissions are indirectly subsidized
b. subsidizing diesel
c. for increasing the cost of parking by the hour
d. for not making it mandatory for car owners to own parking space[6] The most suitable title for this passage is
a. Polluting Politics
b. No No Nano
c. Submerge Subsidies
d. More Cars, Less Pollutionasked in SNAP
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87.
Read the following case and choose the best alternative ::
Chetan Textile Mills (CTM) has initiated various employee welfare schemes for its employees since the day the mill began its operations. Due to its various welfare initiatives and socially responsible business practices, the organisation has developed an impeccable reputation. Majority of the regular workers in Chetan Mills had membership of Chetan Mills Mazdoor Sangh (CMMS), a non political trade union. CMMS had the welfare of its member as its guiding principle. Both CTM and CMMS addressed various worker related issues on a proactive basis. As a result no industrial dispute had been reported from the organization in the recent past.
These days majority of the employers deploy large number of contract labourers in their production processes. In an open economy survival of an organization depends on its competitiveness. In order to become competitive, an organization must be able to reduce cost and have flexibility in employment of resources. Engaging workers through contractors (contract labourer) reduces the overall labour cost by almost 50%. Indian labour legislations make reduction of regular workers almost impossible, but organisations can overcome this limitation by employing contract labourers. Contract labourers neither get the same benefit as regular employees nor do they have any job security. According to various recent surveys, government owned public sector units and other departments are the biggest employers of contract labourers in the country. Contractors, as middle-men, often exploit the contract labourers, and these government organizations have failed to stop the exploitation.
Over time CTM started engaging a large number of contract labourers. At present, more than 35% of CM’s workers (total 5,000 in number) are contract labourers. CMMS leadership was wary about the slow erosion of its support base as regular workers slowly got replaced by contract workers and feared the day when regular workers would become a minority in the mill. So far, CMMS has refused to take contract labourers as members.
Recently, based on rumours, CTM management started to investigate the alleged exploitation of contract labourers by certain contractors. Some contractors felt that such investigations may expose them and reduce their profit margin. They instigated contract labourers to demand for better wages. Some of the contract labourers engaged in material handling and cleaning work started provoking CTM management by adopting violent tactics.
Today’s news-paper reports that police and CTM security guards fired two or three rounds in air to quell the mob. The trouble started while a security guard allegedly slapped one of the contract labourers following a heated argument. Angry labourers set fire to several vehicles parked inside the premises, and to the police jeeps.
[1] In the wake of recent happenings, what decision is expected from CTM management? From the combinations given below, choose the best sequence of action. (4 marks)
I. Stop the current investigation against the contractors to ensure industrial peace; after all allegations were based on rumours.
II. Continue investigation to expose exploitation and take strong actions against trouble makers.
III. Get in direct touch with all contract labourers through all possible means, communicate the need for current investigation to stop their exploitation, and convince them regarding CTM’s situation due to competition. Also expose those contractors who are creating problems.
IV. Promise strong action against the security guards who are guilty.
V. Increase the wages of contract labourers.
(1) I, V
(2) I, II
(3) II, V
(4) III, IV
(5) III, V[2] In the current context, which among the following represent the most suitable reaction from CMMS leadership? (5 marks)
(1) Distance CMMS from the episode and explain that CMMS is not involved in the fiasco through a press conference.
(2) Offer membership to contract labourers, which would put the contract worker at par with the regular workers in CMMS.
(3) Do not offer membership to contract labourers, but represent their interests during negotitation in order to prevent the formation of another union in CTM.
(4) Start another union exclusively for contract labourers of CTM.
(5) Adopt a neutral stand in public, and pass on information related to problem creators to the CTM management.
[3] Out of the options given below, which one would be the best policy decision by government at the national level? (2 marks)
(1) Asking CM management to pay same wages to both regular and contract workers.
(2) Income tax raids in offices of contractors under investigation.
(3) Setting up a new labour welfare office within CM premises.
(4) Setting up a new committee to make recommendations for changes in labour legislations with an objective to reduce exploitation of contract labourers.
(5) Use entire government machinery to support CTM, which has an impeccable track record.[4] The criminals in the surrounding area often took their cue from the situation in the mill, creating law and order problems outside the mill which would later make it difficult for workers to come to mill safely. Given the circumstances, identify the stakeholder that should be the immediate priority of CTM management. (1 mark)
(1) Contract labourers who were allegedly beaten by the security guard of the company.
(2) District administration that is concerned about the spread of violence.
(3) CMMS that prefers an immediate settlement of the issue.
(4) Customers who are concerned about prices and regular supplies.
(5) Contract labourers who are demanding job security and same wages as regular employees.asked in XAT
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88.
We can answer Fermi’s Paradox in two ways. Perhaps our current science over-estimates the likelihood of extraterrestrial intelligence evolving. Or, perhaps, evolved technical intelligence has some deep tendency to be self-limiting, even self-exterminating. After Hiroshima, some suggested that any aliens bright enough to make colonizing space ships would be bright enough to make thermonuclear bombs, and would use them on each other sooner or later.
I suggest a different, even darker solution to the Paradox. Basically, I think the aliens forget to send radio signals or colonize space because they’re too busy with runaway consumerism and virtual-reality narcissism. Once they turn inwards to chase their shiny pennies of pleasure, they lose the cosmic plot.
The fundamental problem is that an evolved mind must pay attention to indirect cues of biological fitness, rather than tracking fitness itself. This was a key insight of evolutionary psychology in the early 1990s; although evolution favours brains that tend to maximize fitness (as measured by numbers of greatgrandkids), no brain has capacity enough to do so under every possible circumstance. As a result, brains must evolve shortcuts: fitness-promoting tricks, cons, recipes and heuristics that work, on an average, under ancestrally normal conditions. Technology is fairly good at controlling external reality to promote real biological fitness, but it’s even better at delivering fake fitness-subjective cues of survival and reproduction without the real-world effects.
Fitness-faking technology tends to evolve much faster than our psychological resistance to it. With the invention of Xbox 360, people would rather play a high-resolution virtual ape in Peter Jackson’s King Kong than be a perfect–resolution real human. Teens today must find their way through a carnival of addictively fitness-faking entertainment products. The traditional staples of physical, mental and social development - athletics, homework dating - are neglected. The few young people with the self-control to pursue the meritocratic path often get distracted at the last minute.
Around 1900, most inventions concerned physical reality and in 2005 focus shifted to virtual entertainment. Freud’s pleasure principle triumphs over the reality principle. Today we narrow-cast human-interest stories to each other, rather than broadcasting messages of universal peace and progress to other star systems.
Maybe the bright aliens did the same. I suspect that a certain period of fitness-faking narcissism is inevitable after any intelligent life evolves. This is the Great Temptation for any technological species – to shape their subjective reality to provide the cues of survival and reproductive success without the substance. Most bright alien species probably go extinct gradually, allocating more time and resources to their pleasures and less to their children.
Heritable variation in personality might allow some lineages to resist the Great Temptation and last longer. Some individuals and families may start with an “irrational” Luddite abhorrence of entertainment technology, and they may evolve ever more selfcontrol, conscientiousness and pragmatism by combining the family values of the religious right with the sustainability values of the Greenpeace. They wait patiently for our fitness-faking narcissism to go extinct. Those practical-minded breeders will inherit the Earth as like-minded aliens may have inherited a few other planets. When they finally achieve contacts, it will not be a meeting of novel-readers and gameplayers. It will be a meeting of dead-serious superparents who congratulate each other on surviving not just the Bomb, but the Xbox.
[1] Among the following options, which one represents the most important concern raised in the passage? (1 mark)
(1) Extraterrestrial life and its impact on human beings.
(2) Lack of interest in developing proper fitness.
(3) Short-term pleasure seeking behaviour.
(4) Technological advancement and extinction of intelligence.
(5) Tendency of brain to develop shortcuts.[2] Which among the following would be the best possible explanation for the lack of contact between human beings and aliens? (1 mark)
(1) Overestimation of the technological capability of aliens.
(2) Genetic variation in aliens’ personality is not yet achieved.
(3) Thermonuclear bombs might have destroyed all aliens.
(4) Colonisation of space is impossible to achieve.
(5) Aliens have become self-centred and pleasure seeking.[3] To which of the following statements would the author of the passage agree the most?
(3 marks)
(1) Violent crime, including gang warfare for turf protection and expansion, co-exists in all technological advanced societies in spite of proliferation of fitness-faking technologies.
(2) The technology to produce fitness-faking gadgets is guided by the government’s desire to control the minds of citizens and keep citizens away from engaging in troublemaking activities.
(3) Countries that have the most advanced technology often are the ones that are at the forefront of colonial expansion through wars.
(4) Wars and colonial conquest engaged in by the European nations after the renaissance would not have occurred had fitness-faking gadgets and consumerism existed in those countries during those times.
(5) The search for colonies is undertaken by all the countries, irrespective of their technological expansion. This colonial expansion is guided more by need for adventure than for resources.
[4] Which of the following statements, if true, challenges the ideas presented in the passage the most? (3 marks)
I. Violent crime, including gang warfare for turf protection and expansion, co-exists in all technological advanced societies in spite of proliferation of fitness-faking technologies.
II. The technology to produce fitness-faking gadgets is guided by the government’s desire to control the minds of citizens and keep citizens away from engaging in trouble-making activities.
III. Countries that have the most advanced technology often are the ones that are at the forefront of preparedness for wars.
IV. The era of colonial expansion that was engaged in by the European nations after the renaissance would have never taken place had the technology to produce fitness-faking gadgets existed during those times.
V. Teenagers having access to technology, engage in more socializing away from parental supervision than those who do not have access to such technology.
(1) I & III
(2) II & III
(3) III & IV
(4) I, II, & V
(5) I, III & Vasked in XAT
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89.
Of the several features of the Toyota Production System that have been widely studied, most important is the mode of governance of the shopfloor at Toyota. Work and inter-relations between workers are highly scripted in extremely detailed ‘operating procedures’ that have to be followed rigidly, without any deviation at Toyota. Despite such rule-bound rigidity, however, Toyota does not become a ‘command-control system’. It is able to retain the character of a learning organization.
In fact, many observers characterize it as a community of scientists carrying out several small experiments simultaneously. The design of the operating procedure is the key. Every principal must find an expression in the operating procedure – that is how it has an effect in the domain of action. Workers on the shop-floor, often in teams, design the ‘operating procedure’ jointly with the supervisor through a series of hypothesis that are proposed and validated or refuted through experiments in action. The rigid and detailed ‘operating procedure’ specification throws up problems of the very minute kind; while its resolution leads to a reframing of the procedure and specifications. This inter-temporal change (or flexibility) of the specification (or operating procedure) is done at the lowest level of the organization; i.e. closest to the site of action.
One implication of this arrangement is that system design can no longer be rationally optimal and standardized across the organization. It is quite common to find different work norms in contiguous assembly lines, because each might have faced a different set of problems and devised different counter-measures to tackle it. Design of the coordinating process that essentially imposes the discipline that is required in large-scale complex manufacturing systems is therefore customized to variations in man-machine context of the site of action. It evolves through numerous points of negotiation throughout the organization. It implies then that the higher levels of the hierarchy do not exercise the power of the fiat in setting work rules, for such work rules are no longer a standard set across the whole organization.
It might be interesting to go through the basic Toyota philosophy that underlines its system designing practices. The notion of the ideal production system in Toyota embraces the following- ‘the ability to deliver just-in-time (or on demand) a customer order in the exact specification demanded, in a batch size of one (and hence an infinite proliferation of variants, models and specifications), defect-free, without wastage of material, labour, energy or motion in a safe and (physically and emotionally) fulfilling production environment’. It did not embrace the concept of a standardized product that can be cheap by giving up variations. Preserving consumption variety was seen, in fact, as one mode of serving society. It is interesting to note that the articulation of the Toyota philosophy was made around roughly the same time that the Fordist system was establishing itself in the US automotive industry.[1] What can be best defended as the asset which Toyota model of production leverages to give the vast range of models in a defect-free fashion? (1 mark)
(1) Large scale complex manufacturing systems
(2) Intellectual capital of the company’s management
(3) Loans taken by the company from banks and financial institutions
(4) Ability of the workers to evolve solutions to problems
(5) Skill and charisma of the top leadership[2] Which of the following can be best defended as a pre-condition for the Toyota type of production system to work? (1 mark)
(1) Existence of workers’ union to protect worker’s rights
(2) Existence of powerful management to create unique strategies
(3) Cordial worker-management relations to have industrial peace
(4) High management involvement towards problems identified by workers
(5) Management’s faith in workers’ abilities to solve problems in a rigorous manner
[3] Based on the above passage, which of the following statements is best justified?
(3 marks)
(1) Workers have significant control rights over the design of work rules that allow worker skills and ingenuity to continuously search for novel micro-solutions using information that often sticks to the local micro-context of the work.
(2) Managers have significant control rights over the design of work rules that allow worker skills and ingenuity to continuously search for novel micro-solutions around microinformation that often sticks to the local micro-context of the work.
(3) Work rules enable the workers to report problems faced at the shop-floor to specialised personnel who set up experiments to replicate the conditions. This allows the specialists to come up with solutions that are rigorously tested in experimental conditions.
(4) Toyota as an organisation has extensive networks with different specialists who are subject matter experts in different fields. These networks allow problems to be resolved in the most advanced manner, enabling Toyota to beat the competition.
(5) Toyota’s products are extensively tested by customers in simulated conditions before they are released to the market. This extensive testing is done by workers who double up as a community of scientists experimenting to develop the most advanced product.[4] What could be the best defence of the “different work norms in contiguous assembly lines”? (4 marks)
(1) Without such variation allowed, rights of manager to design work-rules would have made very little sense, making the company similar to Ford.
(2) Proscribing standardised work norms would prevent Toyota from benefiting from workers’ problem solving ability in resolving different kinds of problems that emerge, thus making it difficult to attain the Toyota philosophy.
(3) If similarities were imposed, rights of workers to experiment with work-rules would have made very little sense.
(4) Standardisation of work rules is only justified when the investments in plants are huge and experimenting with the work rules would be detrimental to the efficiency of the plants. Since Toyota’s plants typically involved low investment, it could tolerate non standard work rules.
(5) With standardisation of processes, right of the workers in design of work-rules made sense. Since Toyota’s manufacturing processes were non-standardised, the different work norms did not make sense.asked in XAT
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90.
Analyse the following transcript (from the movie Matrix) and provide an appropriate answer :
Neo: Morpheus, what's happened to me? What is this place?
Morpheus: More important than what is when.
Neo: When?
Morpheus: You believe it's the year 1999 when in fact it's closer to 2199. I can't tell you exactly what year it is because we honestly don't know. There's nothing I can say that will explain it for you, Neo. Come with me. See for yourself. This is my ship, the Nebuchadnezzar. It's a hovercraft. This is the main deck. This is the core where we broadcast our pirate signal and hack into the Matrix. Most of my crew you already know.
(Next Scene: Construct)
Morpheus: This is the construct. It's our loading programme. We can load anything from clothing, to equipment, weapons, training simulations, anything we need.
Neo: Right now we're inside a computer programme?
Morpheus: Is it really so hard to believe? Your clothes are different. The plugs in your arms and head are gone. Your hair is changed. Your appearance now is what we call residual self image. It is the mental projection of your digital self.
Neo: This...this isn't real?
Morpheus: What is real? How do you define real? If you're talking about what you can feel, what you can smell, what you can taste and see, then real is simply electrical signals interpreted by your brain.
...This is the world that you know. The world as it was at the end of the twentieth century. It exists now only as part of a neural-interactive simulation that we call the Matrix. You've been living in a dream world, Neo. .. .This is the world as it exists today. Welcome to the Desert of the Real. We have only bits and pieces of information but what we know for certain is that at some point in the early twenty-first century all of mankind was united in celebration. We marvelled at our own magnificence as we gave birth to Al.
Neo: Al? You mean artificial intelligence?
Morpheus: A singular consciousness that spawned an entire race of machines. We don't know who struck first, us or them. But we know that it was us that scorched the sky. At the time they were dependent on solar power and it was believed that they would be unable to survive without an energy source as abundant as the sun. Throughout human history, we have been dependent on machines to survive. Fate it seems is not without a sense of irony. The human body generates more bio-electricity than a 120-volt battery and over 25,000 BTU's of body heat. Combined with a form of fusion the machines have found all the energy they would ever need. There are fields, endless fields, where human beings arc no longer born, we are grown. For the longest time I wouldn't believe it, and then I saw the fields with my own eyes. Watch them liquefy the dead so they could be fed intravenously to the living. And standing there, facing the pure horrifying precision, I came to realize the obviousness of the truth. What is the Matrix? Control. The Matrix is a computer generated dream world built to keep us under control in order to change a human being into this.
Neo: No. I don't believe it. It's not possible.
Morpheus: I didn't say it would he easy, Neo. I just said it would be the truth.
Neo: Stop. Let me out. Let me out. I want out.
[1] The innate factor responsible for the status of human beings in later part of 22nd century is
(1) Due to human beings living in a dream world and being happy about it.
(2) The ability of human body to generate bio-electricity.
(3) The decision to scorch the sky.
(4) The development of artificial intelligence by human beings.
(5) Due to human beings developing the ability to hack into the matrix.[2] Choose the option that cannot be inferred from the idea discussed in the transcript:
(1) Morpheus and his crew have developed an ability to hack into the matrix.
(2) A war between human beings and machines is going on for some decades.
(3) The sources of power for human beings and machines were different.
(4) Machines require human beings for their survival now.
(5) Morpheus and his crew are not entirely controlled by the matrix.asked in XAT
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